Remeber Paul the octopus, the underwater oracle who made several accurate predictions in the 2010 football World Cup?
Like Paul, we could confidently predict that Whanganui will have an MP, but beyond that our best shot has to be based on gauging the electorate climate and looking at previous polls.
In an electorate that sprawls across a decent chunk of Kiwi rural heartland, the National Party has a strong grip.
Wanganui city remains Labour's strength but it hasn't been enough to carry the seat for the party - not since 2005 when Chester Borrows won the seat for National, going on to hold it for the ensuing nine years.
It's that strong leaning to National - outside the city especially - which is noteworthy. In the 2011 election, Labour candidate Hamish McDouall shaved back Mr Borrows' majority by about 1300 votes from the previous election, but it still left the incumbent with a comfortable cushion of more than 5000 votes.
And Labour continues to battle in the rural booths. In 2008 it did not win a single rural booth and took just one in the last election. Three years ago National's party vote (15,151) was about the same as 2008 but Labour's party vote slumped to 8733 - a drop of 3437. The beneficiaries? NZ First and the Greens.
Even though NZ First and the Greens are not standing candidates this time, their absence probably isn't going to be enough to unseat Mr Borrows or seriously damage his majority.
So has anything changed since the 2011 election?
The surprise has been the Greens' decision not to field a candidate. Which begs the question: What happens to that residual vote, John Milnes polling 1444 - or 4.64 per cent - of the vote for the Greens in 2011?
If Greens support transfers to Labour's Hamish McDouall, it will cut into Mr Borrows' majority. And while it could be a sizeable swing, it still means Mr McDouall needs to claw back a further 12 per cent of votes.
Even allowing for his personality and profile in the city, it's a big ask given how the party has been polling nationally.
NZ First doesn't have a presence but the decision of Nancy Tuaine to carry the
Maori Party flag is notable as the party steps beyond the Maori electorates.
There's also the candidacy of Kim MacIntyre to consider - he's representing Colin Craig's Conservative Party which was formed in 2011. Also running are Alan Davidson for the ACT Party and Heather Marion Smith representing Democrats for Social Credit.
Then there's the electorate reshuffle - decreed by the Representation Commission last year - which probably strengthens National's grip on the electorate. The Whanganui electorate lost the coastal stretch of Taranaki - from Okato down to Opunake (now in the New Plymouth electorate) - but picked up Stratford from Taranaki-King Country. Throwing Stratford into the mix should not unduly worry Mr Borrows; he was a detective sergeant there during his police career and so is no stranger.
Importantly for him, the Stratford area includes the town and another sweep of rural voters, long established as a place of National Party support.
It should not surprise if Mr McDouall's polling in the city is improved this time around. This is his third attempt and his profile continues to build on the back of his role as a Wanganui district councillor and as the deputy mayor.
For one of the region's civic leaders, this election throws up some key issues. South Taranaki mayor Ross Dunlop said among those issues were increased road funding for provincial regions - a concern shared in Wanganui district and elsewhere - and retention of a portion of oil and gas industry royalties in the community.
Mr Dunlop said while the oil and gas industry produced excellent revenues for the Government, none were specifically captured in the region. "The next government must look to ensuring that a portion of that remains in the region to ensure local communities, which bear the additional infrastructure costs of the industry, benefit directly," he said.
With the huge amounts of public funds going into infrastructure in areas such as Auckland, his district wanted to see a commitment to supporting regional innovation and development.